Originally Posted by JSensei

but I'll bet almost anything that everything is variable according to a master schedule.

+1
For example, I sometimes spend alot of NGacha tickets (50-70+), and don't get even a single SR, while sometimes i spend only like 8 Tickets and get one for the 1 SR Daily Mission. I also pretty often get those near the Dailies restart time (2 AM for me) - at like 1:40-1:50. Same goes for Triple Rolls (Exp, Pero, Etc.) Sometimes they come one after another, so i complete teh first two stages of Dailies consequently, while at the other times i can't get a winnig roll even spending my full 300 Sta even on GHQ (at least, the ones i need atm to complete the last mission i want). Or i can get like 3 SR cards on Ngacha while doing N or R cards Daily mission, but as soon as i subscribe to "Get 1 SR girl" Daily Mission they just stop spawning. Also, today ive spent like 150 Ngacha tickets to finally get the new N slayer before starting to spend my Stamina that i've accumulated while i was sleeping. Almost the same shit Ngacha was doing on me te last time when i've tried to get the 1st phase N Slayer, before starting to roll the gambit slot machine. So yeah, looks like it's not a constant chance % n everything, but some hidden schedule, just like the Sunday Rotation Schedule on GHQ.

Originally Posted by chillinfar

Only experience from past perogambit. Kil stopped to be summoned at some point.

In fact, this cycle is notorious since 1st perogambit. Just wait until tomorrow or review some old posts.

I just got one again in the second part of the event. Keep in mind that if you max her to level 100, she will no longer appear in the boxes (source: Nutaku response to a ticket, see previous page of this thread).

Originally Posted by JSensei

I don't have data to prove it, but I will bet that the drop rate is variable. I'm guessing it's probably like the rate of chance time on extra stage. It probably fluctuates according to some set schedule that we are not privy to as opposed to being a flat x% rate all day. This would help explain why she tends to appear in 'clumps.' I've noticed other people say that they got her back to back, too. We can know as much about the base percentages as possible, but I'll bet almost anything that everything is variable according to a master schedule.

I posted that before EvilAngel pasted the support tickets responses. Nutaku said they increased the chance TWICE because it was too low (possibly due to some bug they couldn't find) so in this case, the drop rate actually changed.

Originally Posted by Vic47

+1
For example, I sometimes spend alot of NGacha tickets (50-70+), and don't get even a single SR, while sometimes i spend only like 8 Tickets and get one for the 1 SR Daily Mission. I also pretty often get those near the Dailies restart time (2 AM for me) - at like 1:40-1:50. Same goes for Triple Rolls (Exp, Pero, Etc.) Sometimes they come one after another, so i complete teh first two stages of Dailies consequently, while at the other times i can't get a winnig roll even spending my full 300 Sta even on GHQ (at least, the ones i need atm to complete the last mission i want). Or i can get like 3 SR cards on Ngacha while doing N or R cards Daily mission, but as soon as i subscribe to "Get 1 SR girl" Daily Mission they just stop spawning. Also, today ive spent like 150 Ngacha tickets to finally get the new N slayer before starting to spend my Stamina that i've accumulated while i was sleeping. Almost the same shit Ngacha was doing on me te last time when i've tried to get the 1st phase N Slayer, before starting to roll the gambit slot machine. So yeah, looks like it's not a constant chance % n everything, but some hidden schedule, just like the Sunday Rotation Schedule on GHQ.

This "sometimes" and "sometimes" thing you describe is really called a random. You can get something in your first try or you can not get it after 500. That doesn't mean the rate has changed. People in general tend to find/create explanations for things that are either not consistent or they don't understand and it has been proved scientifically. It's how the human mind works.
Think about it. What would be the point from the game developer's perspective to put increased/decreased drop chance based on time or any other factor? It's just pointless, doesn't make any sense and requires more work. And even if it was real, things like that should be known to the public from the very beginning.
HOWEVER, Nutaku is very unprofessional and it wouldn't surprise me if they MANUALLY, silently changed event items drop rate from time to time.

so much paranoia

Originally Posted by Balek

I just got one again in the second part of the event. Keep in mind that if you max her to level 100, she will no longer appear in the boxes (source: Nutaku response to a ticket, see previous page of this thread).


I posted that before EvilAngel pasted the support tickets responses. Nutaku said they increased the chance TWICE because it was too low (possibly due to some bug they couldn't find) so in this case, the drop rate actually changed.


This "sometimes" and "sometimes" thing you describe is really called a random. You can get something in your first try or you can not get it after 500. That doesn't mean the rate has changed. People in general tend to find/create explanations for things that are either not consistent or they don't understand and it has been proved scientifically. It's how the human mind works.
Think about it. What would be the point from the game developer's perspective to put increased/decreased drop chance based on time or any other factor? It's just pointless, doesn't make any sense and requires more work. And even if it was real, things like that should be known to the public from the very beginning.
HOWEVER, Nutaku is very unprofessional and it wouldn't surprise me if they MANUALLY, silently changed event items drop rate from time to time.

I still can't believe that the rate is flat and constant. I get that RNGs can give you streaks by complete chance, but I think the game would be more fun if there were periodic changes in rates. If you play enough, you'll have streaks of great luck, and you'll have streaks of poor luck. My theory explains this better. And it also keeps you coming back. You want to get back to the better luck you had before. It's not that hard to code something that makes rates fluctuate up or down for a couple minutes every X minutes. If players happen to be on at that moment, BAM, we all have good luck.

I wouldn't expect it to be periods that last for hours, but if you make the fluctuations small enough, they seem very random. It's what I would consider good game design. Making it too flat would decrease the fun factor.

As for the rate increasing, that still doesn't change my theory. If the rate is too low across the board, you bump the 'base' rates. But you still could have the periodic fluctuation throughout the day or throughout the hour that lead to changes in success rates.

Originally Posted by Balek

This "sometimes" and "sometimes" thing you describe is really called a random. You can get something in your first try or you can not get it after 500. That doesn't mean the rate has changed. People in general tend to find/create explanations for things that are either not consistent or they don't understand and it has been proved scientifically. It's how the human mind works.
Think about it. What would be the point from the game developer's perspective to put increased/decreased drop chance based on time or any other factor? It's just pointless, doesn't make any sense and requires more work. And even if it was real, things like that should be known to the public from the very beginning.
HOWEVER, Nutaku is very unprofessional and it wouldn't surprise me if they MANUALLY, silently changed event items drop rate from time to time.

Well, i'm playing online games for like 10 years already, and offline games for, like 20 years, so i might say this looks too suspicious to be plain random, so i could notice some tendencies here. if the chances were constant, i either would get good?bad luck all the time, or don't get those good/bad luck streaks at certain times. in fact, i wouldn't get "streaks" at all. And if i did - that would be an outstanding event, and happened, maybe, once or twice (and be a great luck, no matter, if it is a "good luck" streak, or "bad luck" streak) not every few days. Random things are random - they give you random stuff at random rates. Not depending on what you do, and what are the conditions (missions you are subscribed to, in this case). And streaks in general are only possible, if the win chance % is pretty high (which is definately not a typical case for lottery of any sort)
Also, for the coding - GHQ has it's time-bount Sunday Rotation. If you've already coded the time based prize rotation, why can't you code time or some other condition based win chance rotation?

Originally Posted by Vic47

Also, for the coding - GHQ has it's time-bount Sunday Rotation. If you've already coded the time based prize rotation, why can't you code time or some other condition based win chance rotation?

Exactly. Just because it's not published doesn't mean it's not there. It also doesn't have to be in two hour intervals. There's most definitely something in the background that takes 'base' rates and multiplies them against some external factor.

Originally Posted by Vic47

Also, for the coding - GHQ has it's time-bount Sunday Rotation. If you've already coded the time based prize rotation, why can't you code time or some other condition based win chance rotation?

Because it doesn't make any sense. The rotation in GHQ serves totally different purpose. It allows you to get different cards in the same day,
Reducing or increasing drop chance based on time is just plain stupid. I'm a programmer myself and you usually do things to improve the product, not to confuse the users, and I don't see any improvement in doing such a thing. It's basically saying "hey guys, lets fuck the users who play from hour x to y and favor those who play from y to x".

If you make the periods sufficiently short (a few minutes) you then provide opportunities where you will have increased luck and decreased luck. This helps get you hooked on the game. If you have periods where you get a lot more triple spins, you get excited. Then you go through a period where you get nothing, you want to keep playing to get another one of the better luck periods.

It IS theoretically possible for things to be completely by chance, but things run far too much in streaks for that to be statistically likely. And even if you were theoretically in a period where the drop rate had dropped, it doesn't mean it's zero. It just means that the drop rate is lower.

Originally Posted by JSensei

And even if you were theoretically in a period where the drop rate had dropped, it doesn't mean it's zero. It just means that the drop rate is lower.

I never said its zero. Everything I said was about reducing/increasing drop chance by some weird factor.

Anyway, I guess the best way would be to open a ticket and ask them directly.

Bwah, it looks like the rate has changed back just a day or two after they've told they've fixed it... I haven't got a single Konoha for the last few days ( I've also noticed some wierd stuff going on with the Choice of Fate in Gambit - sometimes the correct cards rate keep at 1/6 many times in a row, while sometimes it turns to normal, like 3 or 4, and keeps increasing if you choose the incorrect one. But sometimes it just keeps frozen at 1/6, no matter what.

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by JSensei

If you make the periods sufficiently short (a few minutes) you then provide opportunities where you will have increased luck and decreased luck. This helps get you hooked on the game. If you have periods where you get a lot more triple spins, you get excited. Then you go through a period where you get nothing, you want to keep playing to get another one of the better luck periods.

Exactly. In fact, i sometimes even waste a Peronamin or two, or several Halves to get the the last few triple rolls to finish the "get 10 X rolls" to complete the last/current Daily Mission, when i get a "luck streak" and manage to complete my "get 5 rolls" dailies and roll over 5/10 in any (or both) "get 10 rolls" dailies. Today was just like that, when i got like 7 triple rolls in a streak, and then, another 3 triple rolls after a couple bad rolls. While most of the time i get single triplets from time to time, with a more or less constant rate, or 2-3 lucky rolls with a few bad rolls between them. While there are times when i'm starting to get triplets in streaks, or, vice versa, burn several peronamins and get nothing.
And i'm pretty sure the schedule is not even, or big enough so i can't notice it, and the periods are definately not as big as they are on Sunday Rotation. At the very best it's half an hour, but, probably, much less, actually.