Welcome! xD Since the discussion about how PPS handles the random cards picks from the user got enough attention, I'm opening this thread so we can continue arguing without spamming the other thread.

So, the polemic (lol) mainly is if whether PPS actually calculates which card you're gonna get from chance rolls/gachas before you make your choice, or if it really places each possible card "under" the 6 face-down cards we see when choosing.

To save time, I'm gonna quote each comment written about this subject. Also, that could help Kotono to clean the other thread if he wants, without loosing this random discussion xD:

Originally Posted by Tenhou

Might be a major coincidence, but i've noticed SR cards appearing in specific slots depending on which card it was. In my case Runa appeared in the middle and left top ones everytime she appeared in explore. Same tactic with N-gacha, really, so i have every SR card you can get from N-gacha because i just kept pressing that one spot i saw them appear on and they did so again. Has worked for every card i wanted, like Akie Ibara always appearing for me in the top middle and lower right. Sure, can be a coincidence, but i have managed to get a lot of SRs with this specific trick.

Originally Posted by Danex

Now that you mention that, I'm really curious about how PPS handles a random card pick from the player.

I remember that in Marvel Avengers Alliance (a Facebook game for those who haven't played it), in some situations you had to choose between 9 possible squares to receive a random reward. Some guys from that community started to analyse the game's code and realized that the game calculates the prize you won from the random pick before you actually choose anything. Being that said, at the moment the random choice spawned, the reward was already decided, but the game simply displayed the rest of the possible rewards on the rest of the squares depending on the one you choose.

If PPS's random picks works the same way, then we're more depending on probabilities than we would on our own choices ('cause everyone tends to have a pattern when choosing).

Originally Posted by Kotono

If that were the case, then the purpose of card reveals would be void.
It also means guaranteed SR tickets would not function the way they currently do.

Originally Posted by CSocktaters

That is odd because I have gotten every single N card and almost all R cards (missing 3) from the gacha possible by clicking in the top right corner. The theory is interesting but we don't have near enough evidence to prove it.

Originally Posted by Tenhou

I have every SR, R and just missing the newest N from the gacha. I was simply much going for the SR cards the way i described previously and just kept clicking specific spots, which eventually also gave me all the other cards. For me, N and R cards seem to show up a bit everywhere, while SR cards have specific spots. Haven't seen a single SR card that wasn't in its own 1-2 designated spots, no exceptions (well, some of them had up to 3 spots, but still).

Originally Posted by Xanthius

This topic was brought up around the game's launch time over at ulmf, to which user omp1234 posted

To those thinking the chances of a rare card are 1/6: No.

This is how these types of games get you.

The 6-card layout is nothing but a mind-game, just like Valve's CS:GO gun slot. Your chances for rare or higher cards are a static percentage, usually around 30%. What you get on this percentage scale is applied to whatever card you click on, on-the-spot. It's random number generation that only LOOKS like a 6-card monte.

Not matter what card you click on, you have the same exact chances of getting a rare or higher card, because the cards are generated AFTER you make your decision, not before.

FOR EXAMPLE: Say the game shows you 6 face-down cards, and you have a chance to draw an SSR card. Your chances of drawing that SSR card is NOT 1-in-6. It's about 0.05%. The 1-in-6 is a trick, and what you get will be decided on an RGN after you click, which will very likely fall outside of the SSR hit range. But the game will reveal one of the other cards as the SSR card an make you think you were 'so close'. You weren't.

This is how all gacha mechanics work in F2P games.

While there aren't any verified facts of how the PPS system works, I have also played a few F2P games using a similar mechanic where this was proven to be the case.

Originally Posted by Opalia24

I once wrote down how many time I saw a SR and how often I got the SR. The result was close 1 in 6.
It seems players in this game in not cheated with the probility.
I lost the data but will collect more and also on which space got the sr-girl.

Originally Posted by Kotono

Second, I get a LOT of SR cards, leading me to believe the 1 in 6 chance is quite true. Even if the face down cards is just a ploy, fact is I still get the SRs a lot.

It's also true that I've never seen an SR appear without the step up animation. But it is true that I have seen them NOT show up even after the animation played quite often.

Originally Posted by Danex

So in theory PPS should work quite much like M:AA and other F2P games.
Well, if the system worked fine for older games of this kind, it kinda makes sense that other games stick to it.

Guaranteed SR Gachas shouldn't have problems with this system, since the difference would be the maths that the program does to determine wheter you get a card or not.
Bad thing we can't put hands on the code to test it (without risking massive ban hammers LOL xD), but again, leaving the probabilities to the program avoids us the risk that our own biases represent.

Thanks Xanthius for the info.

Originally Posted by RRYGO

math or superstition...everything works when someone wants something...

good thing is math doesnt cares about superstition, so, even if i try with the second, it will not affect me negatively

Originally Posted by Xanthius

And definitely agree with you on getting lots of SR cards. PPS seems very generous with its probabilities no matter how you look at it...lady luck never favors so many people at a time

Originally Posted by Opalia24

I numbered the 6 Cards spots this way:

1 2 3
4 5 6

I recorded how many time the SR-Girl was in each of the 6 spots:

SR1: 3 times
SR2: 5 times
SR3: 6 times
SR4: 6 times
SR5: 4 times
SR6: 6 times
Total 30 times I saw 1 SR-Girl.
I would expect 30/6 = 5 times to get the SR-girl . I got her 4 times. Last gave I tested I got more SR-Girl then expected.

No spot seems a lot better than the other spots.

Same for R-girls:

R1: 54
R2: 50
R3: 39
R4: 44
R5: 52
R6: 46
Total 285 R girls seen.
Expected R-Girls got 285/6 = 47.5 R-Girls obtained 57.

Total 229 Chance spins.

If you dont use items chances seems to be around:
N-girl 78,5%
R-girl: 20%
SR-Girl: 1,5%

I still support the idea of the game doing the maths before the actual selection made by the players. By doing so they (devs) can keep the probabilities clean, and also if they want to modify the particular % of a card, they could without much problem, which means that if they want to give better chances for us to get SR or whatever, it should just be a matter of changing certain numbers.

Hope this helps for something xP