Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde

Your numbers are completely wrong on this Opalia...
You're going about this in the wrong direction.
The numbers go like this:
There are around 9300 players in this event. If half the players are online, total attacks per hour are 55800 attacks (9300 * 6).
If 1 in 6 attacks target Sexy rank 1 payers, we get 9300 attacks.

First point of failure in the all natural def wins idea:

->Open Spoiler<-

While most players might be Moe (this is debatable, but I agree at least 2/5th of the player base will be Moe), it's ridiculous to believe every Moe player will attack 1rankers, specially considering the majority of Moe players will be in the lower ranks, which have less than 20% chance of ever beating 1rankers, even with full Moe decks.
And what I completely disagree with is that, even if all those Moe players were to attack a Sexy 1ranker at least once, I refuse to believe they will use all 6 of the attacks in that hour to try and defeat a group of people they can not win against.
1 attack against 1ranker? Probable.
2 attacks? Weird.
3 consecutive attacks? Improbable.
All 6 attacks? Ridiculous nonsense.
And for all 9300 attacks? Even less.

Second point of failure in the all natural def wins idea:

->Open Spoiler<-

If we even bother checking the stats of the top 100, you'll se something interesting:
Anybody below Top100 averages less than 50 defensive wins per day.
Top100 averages around 75 def wins a day.
Top50 moves to around 100 def wins a day
Top30 is still around 100 def wins a day
Top20 jumps up to 125 def wins a day
All the way up to Pos9th you can get at best 150 def wins.
And then, the Top8 start showing more than 300 def wins per day? That's twice the amount of def wins from one position to the other.
And then Top5 and higher take it another ridiculous step all the way to 500+ def wins per day... Culminating in Top3 having around 800~900 def wins per day.

That's just not statistically possible.

Another point against them is that, if you're connected 24/7, you can see their def win count jump by 200~300 wins in small time lapses. I'm talking about Harl having 1.4k def wins around 3am, and then having 1.65k def wins around 7am. That's getting more def wins in 4hs than most everybody in the Top50 got in the two days that the event is going.

The main failure point in your idea is that you speak about random Moe vs Sexy attacks.
I refuse to believe anybody is so stupid as to randomly attack Harl, or Sanae, 20 times in three hours...

BTW, in the last two hours both Sanae and Harl jumped up another 100 def attacks

If ALL 9300 player are online there would be 9300 * 6 attackes per hour.
If HALF of the players are online 9300 * 6 / 2 = 27900 attacks per hour. What was what I wrote.

My assumtions:
a) 1/2 of the players play Moe
b) All Moe attack Sexy players
c) 1/3 of the Moe players attack rank 1 Sexy players
then 1/6 of all attacks would hit at rank 1 Sexy players.

Atleast 3 time more players play Moe than Sexy I didnt count the other types. If number of Sexy player = number of Non-type player = number of Babe players then atleast half the player play Moe.

27900 / 6 = 4650 attacks per hour at rank 1 sexy players.

There are just 150 sexy player so each player would get attacked 4650/150= 31 times per hour.

I just attacked each of the top 8 player 3 times - Result: 24 wins for me ofcause.

My Sexy trap deck got 3 wins in 1 hour but I dont have all the best cards at level 100.

I also saw that half of the top 8 player in same hour hour got 0-3 wins while the other half got 29-47 wins!!!

It could also be that half the top players was in attack mode and other half was in trap mode? Strange.

To get the number of defensive wins they have to win almost all the times where they are attacked which I dont beleve. More likely they would win 10% of there matches.

Ealyer I suggested that each player could only attack each other player once per day - then cheaters could get one free win from each alt per day and this problem would disapear imo.