Bonus stage is so bad

**Tenhou** · 07-14-2015

Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde

It's not that I believe the BA to be better than GHQ: I actually agree with the rest of you on just how bad it is.
It's the fact that it might be useful some time, and just dismissing it as worse than anything else would just cripple our effectiveness later.

Well it's useful whenever the GHQ area has shut down for the day

Jokes aside, it is nice that everyone is collecting data. I won't be able to help a lot with that for a while since i am not in the BA yet, and this also means i cannot access all GHQ areas yet. Got two more girls i need to finish, and i will be stuck on the current until i can get her SR card since it is not available in normal gacha (rather not get an even lower chance later in the BA).

**Opalia24** · 07-14-2015

73 spins at GHQ today any yesteday only trippe results so far !!!

**Zerana** · 07-15-2015

You guys are pretty lucky in GHQ. I just leveled up, so I spent a little over 400 stamina in GHQ and there were 3 times that I didn't get a triple hit. That being said, I still think GHQ is far better than the BA since it's possible to spend tons of stamina and not get a triple hit. The odds are just far better in the GHQ

However...because the GHQ is expensive, it can be difficult to get the triple hit that you are aiming for. From personal experience I have noticed that EXP hits seem to happen more in the BA while Chance and Pero tend to happen more in GHQ. This of course is just my personal experience and I don't have solid numbers to hand out aside from what happened to me today....

Spending 440 stamina I have hit these numbers in GHQ:

Chance: 7 times
EXP: 2 times
Pero: 4-5 times
Gift: 4 times
Miss: 3-4 times

This is just today's results. Yesterday I did hit EXP more often, but certainly not as much as the BA.

**ChibiKika** · 07-15-2015

For the record, as per the title, I think this thread was simply to bash at the Bonus Area in an attempt to mark it as worse than quite literally everything else but somehow that strayed quite a bit over to the effectiveness of the GHQ. I'll give my 2-cents on it but first...

Originally Posted by Opalia24

73 spins at GHQ today any yesteday only trippe results so far !!!

Okay, I'm just gonna go out and say it because last night's nightmare of zombie apocalypse has continued to leave my head scrambled and my Spelling Nazi piece of my brain has been kicking me in the jaw repeatedly as I've been reading this entire thread.

It's *triple*, TRIPLE!!! One P, One L, One E. I'm not entirely sure how you went from having it correctly to 'trible', then 'trippel', hovered at 'trippel', for several hours, moved it to a slightly more correct 'tripple', and then just lost the L in 'trippe'. If it's that hard to spell, you can also consider the alternative of '3x'

I understand perfectly that there are dozens of reasons the word can be misspelled and that I very likely have no business picking at a person's spelling abilities or lack thereof considering the player base (not regarding that in any offensive manner) but if in the course of a day you manage to misspell the same word over 5 different posts and despite people giving the correct spelling of that word, I just...augh *headdesk*

Now for relevance:

I've noticed that even with all the statistical tests being done on BA vs GHQ vs 1-3, no one has really mentioned Time-Statistic or in terms of recommendation the choice of area in consideration for player level and desire.

By time-statistic, I mean the npc-generated saying (I forget exactly where and when I remember reading it up but it seems to be worth considering) that statistical chances of getting certain 3x rolls change over time of the day, so in other words your odds of rolling 3x Chance may be significantly higher one hour, then significantly lower the next and instead is replaced by 3x Pero or 3x Gift. I can't give any definitive proof since I didn't chart it myself but I have noticed at times when I decided to go stamina-nuts and burn up to a dozen peronamin (yes, I do buy those, go ahead and look at my "capitalism" post if you want to mouth off about it) in one sitting that at least for up to half an hour, I would end up with a long chain of back to back 3x something (35/60 rolls in a 5x stam burn were 3x gift rolls) Occasionally as a result I'd end up punching through an entire day of GHQ runs without a single 3x pero roll possibly because I just chose to punch it at the wrong time, which was both intriguing as it was irritating to take note of. This...for lack of a better word, phenomena, is important to consider because of the fact players presently can only choose up to 2 missions to have active at a time (only 1 if you haven't progressed past Stage 1 in the story) so there comes a chance you will choose a mission (or a pair of missions) that you were hoping to roll and get blindsided by a bad hour and lose all your stamina, which results in game rage, rage-quit, and we never hear from you again.

Consideration for player level is in reference to anyone who cannot be on the game consistently throughout the day and is still of a level too low to make proper use of the GHQ, desire in reference to his/her present long-term goals. I myself have (presently, subject to change by next week) 247 stamina, a little over 2-3 dozen peronamin if I'm desperate to finish a mission for whatever reason, and despite that I'm unhappy with my max stamina because I have a 6-11 hour sleep schedule, 6-9 hour work schedule, and because I outright detest wasted regenerating resource, I'll be disappointed because 247 stamina allows 12 GHQ runs (1 over enough to finish the stamina mission but that's literally all it can guarantee) and covers 4 hours 7 minutes (to make it easy, let's just say 4 hours), meaning best case scenario I waste around 240 stamina per day and worst case scenario up to 720. Take into account that PPS isn't the first thing I wake up to do, and the waste grows further.

I'm straying so I'll get back to the point.

Choosing which stage to approach should be dependent on what the player is capable of and has in mind for long term goals. The whole "Ultimately, I want to be able to finish all the daily missions without burning a single peronamin" idea requires a player to either have no concept of sleep or a high enough level and large enough friend list to hoard enough stamina to at the least exceed his/her sleep patterns in regeneration time (from what I can tell I need at least another 20-30 levels before I'm there, and I've already burned through all the story content so far), so a player with that goal may want to focus on exp/leveling and so if he/she has had a consistent lack of 3x exp rolls in the GHQ, BA/Story may be a good call for leveling until the max stamina has hit an acceptable level. As far as anything else goes, stare at the stats, stare at your goal, and plan accordingly, that's all I can say.

tl;dr (Seriously? tl;dr? Maybe I should replace it with "How about you get a longer attention span and improve your capacity to understand what people are trying to explain to you, you damned goldfish?" I'm done tired of you sheeple just ignoring me and rambling to each other like I'm a ghost and my hour-long explanations aren't worth the penny stuck in that laundry machine that everyone sees but no one wants to touch because it's just a bit too far away to reach in the machine so people figure worthless is as worthless does so they just-)

*headdesk* Sorry, zombie apocalypse scramble

Real tl;dr:
Generally BA trumps GHQ in raw pero/exp gain, but GHQ may be desirable if you have luck on your side, luck on your side being generalized luck and possibly a good time of day where all-holy RNGesus smiles upon you (no, really). With that in mind, instead of watching all this and waiting for an answer to your "so where should I go?", start thinking what it is that you're trying to do in PPS and then make the choice yourself.

**Opalia24** · 07-15-2015

Sorry for my spelling. I wish my written English were better.

I think you right that chance change a little bit from time to time.
It just hard to put into a model.

I will try to collect data from many days to discover how good "bonus stage” and GHQ are on an average.
If I know the chances for triple spins and know how many spins I have left until I have to go to sleep, I can calculate chance of finishing each quest. I can use this to choose what quest I should go for.

If I in a game like this have a choose between doing "A" or "B" I like to know what would happen if I choose "A" or "B" because then I can start to try to make the best tactic.

So far my tactic seem to have worked well being a free player with over 250.000 SED, but I played a lot.
I normale check in and use my stamina at: 6:00, 7:40, 17:30, 20:00 and 23:30 but It would be nice to be able to store 6-8 hours of stamina.

**YoshiEnVerde** · 07-15-2015

[MENTION=101]ChibiKika[/MENTION], you make a good point.
Problem is that every verifiable use case you add to a thesis/experiment its complexity grows exponentially.

Just making general prob. math for this will need a dozen of us loading data for a month.
Taking different timezones, access levels, and player dedication would need for us to triple, or more, the amount of data gathering, and at least double de data collation part.

I have the same 8hs for sleep, and 9hs for work, with an extra 2hs of home<>office daily travel. And that doesn't take into account time for eating, cleaning the house, etc (I'm single).
The point about this kind of game is that you don't need to be logged in 24/7 (unless you're fighting for a high place in an event). You can log in every 2~4hs (depending on your level) and just burn the stamina.

That's another way I try to keep my data gathering the most sterile as possible: If I log in every couple hours and burn all the stamina regenerated, the data will be spread amongst as many spin-configs as possible.

**Opalia24** · 07-16-2015

I find it hard to find any clear patterns in my data:
Here I show a sample of my data. It is my data from area 5-3. You can see if you can find pattern I did not see.

Normally when I do not have holidays, I lock in at 6:00, 7:40, 17:30, 20:00, 23:30 so data from many time periods.

My data from area 5-3 summarized.
C 133 times
P 65 times
G 130 times
E 113 times
N 806 times
L 2 times
Sum 1249 spins

C 10,7%
P 5,2%
G 10,4%
E 9,1%
N 64,6%

Spot layout:

1 2 3
4 5 6

I always picked girl in spot 2. It have been best spot in other test.

Number of N,R and SR-girls seen in the 6 spots:

Spot1: N-Girls: 107 R-Girls: 26 SR-Girls: 0
Spot2: N-Girls 97 R-Girls 33 SR-Girls: 3
Spot3: N-Girls 104 R-Girls: 20 SR-Girls: 9
Spot4: N-Girls 103 R-Girls: 26 SR-Girls: 4
Spot5: N-Girls 99 R-Girls: 30 SR-Girls: 4
Spot6: N-Girls 99 R-Girls: 30 SR-Girls: 4
Sum N-Girls 609 R-Girls: 165 SR-Girls:24

Procentage of girls seen that are: N, R and SR:
N-Girls 76,3% R-Girls: 20,7% SR-Girls: 3,0%

(In N-Gacha around 1.5% of girls are SR. 3x Chance seems to have around double SR chance as a N-Gacha)

N=Nothing
E=3x Exp
P=3x Pero
G=3x Gift
C=3x Chance(R spots that have rare girls, RS: spots that have SR-girl)
C(R:5,SR:2) = Rare girl in spot 5, SR-girl in spot 2.
L=3x Level

C(R:5,SR:0) = Means photos shown but no SR-Girl. Happened once.
If there are a SR-girl photos are always shown.

Raw data:

->Open Spoiler<-

- - - Updated - - -

20 More spins at bonus stage:
1x triple Exp
1x triple Gift
1x triple Chance
17x Nothing

This data fit perfectly with the data I already got.

At this speen it will take 18 * 20 =360 spins = 3600 Stamina just to finish all Chance quests

Players get in 24 hours just 1440 stamina. So players need tons of luck to finish all Chance quests without using items at bonus stage.
Unless data sudently change Bonus Stage Suck big time.

- - - Updated - - -

22 More spins at bonus stage:
1x triple Exp
2x triple Gift
3x triple Chance
16x Nothing

Better this time but only good enogth to finish 2nd Chance mission before reset at 0:01 AM.

- - - Updated - - -

I looked at the data from many1000s of spins I have recorded so far.
I cannot find any proof that chance change over time from large data sets.
In the end it is just pure luck. From time to we all got a good day.
No spots are better for picking than others long run.
Players get proximately the SR-girl 1 in 6 when one of the 6 cards is a SR-Girl.
Human seem to forget (ignore) loose easily but remember wins.
This might help to explain why so many loose so on much gambling – They feel they really win-ing but they are in fact losing. People look too closely will find patterns.
I found them many times – each time I made a theory and the started to collect new data to test it.
So far all my theory about some spots to be better or game to be anything but just random have failed.

I might be wrong but that is what data tells me so far.
I would be happy if anyone could prove me wrong.

18 More spins at bonus stage:
0x triple Exp
1x triple Gift
0x triple Chance
1x triple Pero
16x Nothing

3 hours of spins and not a single triple chance.!!!

22 More spins at bonus stage:
3x triple Exp
0x triple Gift
0x triple Chance
2x triple Pero
15x Nothing

**ChibiKika** · 07-16-2015

@YoshiEnVerde I do realize how much complexity the consideration of an RNG alteration by time period would add to the equation itself but unfortunately I have to emphasize that if such a thing were in fact programmed into the system and those gathering data chose to ignore it, the conclusion from rendered data would undoubtedly be inaccurate if not completely false. For that matter, it would render most of the statistical data gathered thus far worthless.

That being said, in positive hopes that is not the case, it would be desirable to hope otherwise and only come to that conclusion once enough data has been gathered to determine that there is in fact such an anomaly not accounted for. All I'll ask is to set it aside but take it into consideration if something seems off down the road.

And admittedly yes, I'm not very meticulous when it comes to testing statistics (was more of a calculus guy) so everything I say is more or less unproven hypothesis, in some cases one that's like religion in that it can neither be proved nor disproved. Ultimately it will become little more than a plausibility to consider if all other statistical conclusions seem to fall short somewhere.

**Opalia24** · 07-16-2015

The "Happy hour theory": Some hours or periods have bigger success chance than others.
Example: At some periods, triple Chance might be 5% and other 15% with an average 10%.
How to test this? My suggestion look at waiting times. Number of spins from between one triple chance to the next.
If chance of triple "Chance" is, constant waiting times will follow an exponential distribution.
If happy hour theory is correct we could get more very short and very long waiting time.

I also look at how often did SR come in same spot 2 time i a row:
4 out of 24 times or just 1:6. Not much better than the 1:6 chance you get by picking at random.

**YoshiEnVerde** · 07-16-2015

Originally Posted by ChibiKika

@YoshiEnVerde I do realize how much complexity the consideration of an RNG alteration by time period would add to the equation itself but unfortunately I have to emphasize that if such a thing were in fact programmed into the system and those gathering data chose to ignore it, the conclusion from rendered data would undoubtedly be inaccurate if not completely false. For that matter, it would render most of the statistical data gathered thus far worthless.

That being said, in positive hopes that is not the case, it would be desirable to hope otherwise and only come to that conclusion once enough data has been gathered to determine that there is in fact such an anomaly not accounted for. All I'll ask is to set it aside but take it into consideration if something seems off down the road.

And admittedly yes, I'm not very meticulous when it comes to testing statistics (was more of a calculus guy) so everything I say is more or less unproven hypothesis, in some cases one that's like religion in that it can neither be proved nor disproved. Ultimately it will become little more than a plausibility to consider if all other statistical conclusions seem to fall short somewhere.

Actually, it does not become innacurate (or false) as long as you sample a broad enough data set.
That's the point of doing the data gathering for a long time, at as many different hours as possible, by as many people as possible: If you were to get an hypthetical data set for each and every "timezone" of the algorithm, then you'd be working with "perfect" statistical equations (averages and such).
It is a true fact from statistical math that once the data universe you're starting from becomes big enough you could never gather a trully perfect representation in your sample.That's why you try to gather from as representative a set you can.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting values for my first two days of data gathering.
I'll post everything together after the first week of gathering.

What I can see, however, still shows BA to not be that bad as was originally implied...

->Open Spoiler<-

As I said above, I won't post any definitive thoughts on this until next week, when I'll have more solid data (I could as well get less than 5 Chance Time spins next BA run through).
Then, I'll collate the data loaded by other people too.

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