Sorry for my spelling. I wish my written English were better.

I think you right that chance change a little bit from time to time.
It just hard to put into a model.

I will try to collect data from many days to discover how good "bonus stage” and GHQ are on an average.
If I know the chances for triple spins and know how many spins I have left until I have to go to sleep, I can calculate chance of finishing each quest. I can use this to choose what quest I should go for.

If I in a game like this have a choose between doing "A" or "B" I like to know what would happen if I choose "A" or "B" because then I can start to try to make the best tactic.

So far my tactic seem to have worked well being a free player with over 250.000 SED, but I played a lot.
I normale check in and use my stamina at: 6:00, 7:40, 17:30, 20:00 and 23:30 but It would be nice to be able to store 6-8 hours of stamina.