Originally Posted by ickss

well, you assume that each way after a node is equiprobable, fact that i personally never read anywhere.

When I looked the event up on the jp wiki they ran probabilities with equal odds for each route so that's what I used.

Originally Posted by Unregistered

this makes sense to me- I remember one 4 way map that I failed 6 times in a row. at 50% odds, should have beat it 3/8 times (50% chanee for two on one branch to each go different, 25% chance for all three on other branch to choose same path). But I couldn't figure out which branch should get the 3 for better chances, so I assumed rotten luck

Because you totally can't get 100 heads in a row flipping a coin right? Just because series of events is unlikely it doesn't change the odds of it happening.

Originally Posted by Corintis

Do this for campaigns 10 and up nao.

I think I'll pass. There's no time limit on the campaign maps so there's no incentive to show the most probable way of doing the map since you can just run the map ad infinitum until you get a win. It usually comes down to making sure you have the minimum number of units on the node to cover the minimum number of paths necessary to get 3 medals then if you have any left over you just add them to the node that has the lowest chance for success.