When I looked the event up on the jp wiki they ran probabilities with equal odds for each route so that's what I used.
Because you totally can't get 100 heads in a row flipping a coin right? Just because series of events is unlikely it doesn't change the odds of it happening.
I think I'll pass. There's no time limit on the campaign maps so there's no incentive to show the most probable way of doing the map since you can just run the map ad infinitum until you get a win. It usually comes down to making sure you have the minimum number of units on the node to cover the minimum number of paths necessary to get 3 medals then if you have any left over you just add them to the node that has the lowest chance for success.