Originally Posted by kringley

I think your odds for the bottom right chest are a little low - from the bottom RNG node, 2/3 paths hit that one for certain, and on the other path, you still have 1/2 paths at the central node that take you there. Any of the top squads that turn toward the central node also have a chance of making that one. That one is just a little bit worse than the middle chest in my recent experience. The top one is the one that gets missed the most often.
I like the analysis though, thanks for that.

Actually, thinking about it, you're right, I mentally moved that chest down one spot (so you'd have a 1/3 chance of it). It's actually 2/3 you get it, 1/3 you have a 50% shot (1/6) so 83.33% chance of that chest.

Ultimately though, the conclusion is the same (it just pushes the point further). Manyu daily if ALL you care about is leveling two types of girls, 12-1/3/5 + SG for general purpose farming.