This is just how random works. A coin can land on heads 10 times in a row. And we know exactly how often we expect it to happen: it should happen, on average, one out of every 1024 set of 10 coin flips.
The scenario sketched above is helpful to understand how to farm. Maybe losing 7-5 is a 1/8 chance. Which means that you might be able to clear it many times before coming across that one loss. But suppose the you know that there is no way you can lose 6-5. Then you should farm 6-5. Why?
For 720 stamina, you'll attempt 7-5 8 times and be successful 7 of them which gives 7*396 = 2772 or 7*418 = 2926 sun medals (depending on which route your whaleship takes). But for 720 stamina, you'd complete 6-5 9 times and be successful for all of them which would give 9*351 = 3159 sun medals. Knowing the probability to fail shows you which map you should farm. 1/8 failure chance isn't very high and might not be inferred in just a couple of attempts. And yet, 1/8 is high enough to make 6-5 the more efficient sun medal farming map.