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  1. #1
    I can confirm the "no more than 2 items + candy" theory, at least for silver and below..

    Last donation gave me Peronamin + SR Wild Card 5 + 20 candy.

  2. #2
    My theory is that players can get all reward with just 1 candy if they er Lucky enogth.
    So list of reward you get by donating fx 1 R-Gacha become useless unless it have properbilities imo.

    The way I think donating Work is that the more points of items you donate the longer waiting time will be garantied. Waiting time can if you are Lucky alwasy be longer but newer shorter that garanti.

    Example: If you donat 1 R-Gacha you get a minimum waiting time for 50 min, but if you Lucky you can ge waiting of 1:00, 1:30, 2:00, 2:30 and 3:00.
    Most likely also even longer waiting times but I have not been Lucky enogth to get them myself. Each waithing time have a basket with rewards and proberbilities of each reward.


    With 1* R-Gacha or 1* Pudding or 1* paronamin I got (waithing time normaly 50 mins):

    35 times I got: SR Wild3
    28 times I got: SR Wild3 + R Wild
    25 times I got: 20 candy + SR-wild 3
    10 times I got: 15 candy + SR wild1 + paronamin half
    8 times I got: pudding half
    8 times I got: R-Girl
    5 times I got: paronamin half
    3 times I got: SR Wild1
    2 times I got: 15 candy + R Girl
    2 times I got: N-Girl
    2 times I got: 20 candy + SR-wild 3 + pudding half
    1 times I got: R-Girl + N Girl

    I think this drops relates to waiting times longer tha 50 min:

    1 times I got: SR-Wild5 + pudding
    1 times I got: Peromin half + Peromin (2:00)
    1 times I got: 20 candy + R Gacha
    1 times I got: 20 candy + Sr-Wild 3 + perona half
    1 times I got: SR-Wild5 + Perom
    1 times I got: 20 candy + SR-Wild5 + Perom

    Total 135 drops of which 6?? is from longer waiting times.

    It is posible to get both 15 and 20 candy with 50 min waiting time.
    SR-Wild 3 dont come with 15 candy.
    Drops that dont give a SR-Wild3 dont give 20 candy.
    If you get a R-Wild you alwasy get a SR-Wild3 too.

    SR-wild 5 relates to 1:30 waiting times I think.

  3. #3

    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by chillinfar View Post
    I can confirm the "no more than 2 items + candy" theory, at least for silver and below..

    Last donation gave me Peronamin + SR Wild Card 5 + 20 candy.
    The main reason I don't like the candy is just tacked onto the reward theory is that we just don't know how this works, so we can't really say that's how it happens.
    The algorithm could have so many different ways it was implemented that we just can't know that.
    For example:

    1. A basic table of pairs (PointGain, ConsumedItem)
    2. A basic table of pairs (MinPoints, RewardGrade)
    3. Another table of tuples (RewardGrade, DelayTimeInSeconds, {ListOfValidRewards}, MinRewardPoints, MaxRewardPoints)
    4. A basic table of pairs (PointCost, RewardItem)

    Then Kurito-chan:
    1. Calculates your donation based on the first table
    2. Fetches the reward grade based on the donation points
    3. Checks if she might alter the grade with RNG (Say, roll 16+ in a 1d20)
    4. If grade alteration is go, adds an extra to the grade (-50%,+50%) based on pure RNG (For all programmers out there: (grade * (rngCalc() - 0.5)))
    5. Fetches the delay time and list of valid rewards based on the final grade
    6. Build the reward:
      1. Randomly add an item, from the list of valid rewards, to the reward-
      2. Check if the reward point value (points fetched from the 4th table) is above the minimum needed.
        • If reward points are lacking, repeat from the first step. Only do this once.
      3. Apply magic formulae to the difference between MaxRewardPoints and CurrentRewardPoints to calculate how many candes to add.
    7. Register the reward, and return the delay time.



    Of course, that's a ridiculous amount of work for such a functionality.
    First of all, it's most probable that whatever we donate will only be used for calculating the reward grade, which will yield the delay time only.
    Then, once the time period is over, and we click on the RECIEVE button, only then the server will build a reward based on the grade/delay time.
    That would mean that, if a hypothetical grade of 6 were to be between 2k and 5k donation points, we'd get the same possible rewards no matter if we gave 2001pts in donations, or 4999pts.

    Also, based on optimized algorithms for this kind of thing, the most probable way this works is:

    [LIST=1][*]Calucale the reward grade in only one line of code (and two nested SQL queries):
    Code:
    fetchRewardGradeFromDataServer(ListOfDonationItems){
    
    Connection = ConnectToDataServer; QUeryResult = Connection.ExecuteSQLQueryforRewardGrade(ListOfDonationItems, RNG.getRngFactor); Numeric grade = QueryResult.getRewardGrade; Numeric delay = QueryResult.getDelayTime;
    }
    While the SQL code would look something like:
    Code:
    SELECT reward_grade, delay_time
    FROM reward_grade_table,
    
    (SELECT SUM(item_value) donation_value FROM LOOP list_of_donation_items
    (SELECT item_value FROM donation_items_table WHERE item_name = donation_item_name)
    )
    WHERE grade_min_value <= (donation_value + rng_factor) AND grade_max_value >= (donation_value + rng_factor)
    After that, once the time is over and we click on the recieve button,
    we'd send the reward grade to the server, and it would:
    1. Get a random number from RNG
    2. Ask the Data Server for the rewards for a certain grade and a certain random index
    3. Return the rewards to us

    Once again, such a thing could be done with a simple piece of code and an even simpler SQL query to a table of tuples (reward_grade, random_offset, list_of_reward_items).



    No, I'm not even saying that's how it works. I'm just showing that there are many possibilities we can cook up in our brains, and none of them might even be close to the real thing. As such, we can bandy around theories for how it works internally, but the facts we must present are the tabulated data we gather, and any statistical conclusion we can reach from those alone.

    Anything else is just deriving some fun from trying to understand how it might work.
    This is just like my work on the flash code to check if chance time and gacha rewards were calculated pre-choice or post-choice.
    PPS ID: 853603 (YoshiEnVerde)
    Osawari Invite: 40VRKO15D3C537UUC2F4F

  4. #4
    Put in 1 R-Gacha ticket, got a 1:30 wait time.

    Edit: Received the Limited R card.
    Last edited by Skulkraken; 07-23-2015 at 12:31 AM.

  5. #5
    Yeah, I'm just gonna...go make that other thread.

    There are...so many things regarding the "lack of understanding" notes that are being put up here that I want to mouth off about but seeing as I don't have my own documented data to try to push towards a point, I can recognize that most of my arguments here are pretty weak.

    And yeah, I'll just go out and say it, that after careful thought, I think the reports of the data we've collected may have been missing a bit of detail that I would have otherwise wanted to use towards a few of my observations-turned-theories. They're still accurate, just missing the extra "umph" to allows space for conjectures.

    You still want to disagree, fine. I still want to pursue that idea (not on the wiki, of course) until I'm convinced it's untrue. And maybe if I can show the pattern a bit more clearly it'll seem at least more convincing than me loading everything into an idea shotgun and firing it at random for everyone to bash on.

  6. #6
    Hey guys, sorry for not keeping up so well with all the posting. This thread took off way more than I ever thought it would.

    It's great that so many of you have come out and posted results, but now it's getting to where I need a little bit of assistance from you all.
    All I really need is to know what rewards are NOT already in the table. If you get something not mentioned, then please post it. Now, this doesn't mean you shouldn't post all results you get. I'm not against that, but I still would need you to help me notice which items are new. If they can just be bolded or underlined or.. SOMETHING that lets me know it is new without having to double check every single item that I'm not 100% sure I've already taken a record of, that would be awesome.

    Thanks!

    (I think I have it updated with anything new. I may have missed a few thing, so not 100% sure.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    So, I did two 4 hour tests, although I was actually aiming to try and get 4:30, but oh well.

    First gave Pero Pudding x2 + Card Reveal x2
    Second gave the SR

    Interesting thing to note here is that the reward did NOT say it was x2 of either one. It simply showed me a Pero Pudding and a Card Reveal. I only know it gave me x2 of each because I knew how many I should of had, but it was +1 higher in both cases.

  7. #7
    Unregistered Guest
    Just a small error in your first post. You write in the table

    "Pero Pudding x2 + Peronamin x1 2,830 - 3,250 2:00 Limited R, Limited SR, ...."


    Pero Pudding x2 + Peronamin x1 = 2 * 650 + 550 = 1850 points = 1:30 hour and not 2:00

    Replace "Pero Pudding x2 + Peronamin x1" with "Pero Pudding x2 + Peronamin x3"

    Pero Pudding x2 + Peronamin x3 = 2950 = 2:00 hours.

  8. #8
    The points are not 100% accurate because the wait time can vary even for the same donation given. That donation was set at 2:00 because someone stated they gave that and got a 2:00 wait time. For me, this was on page 3 first post.

    Dropped in 2 Pero Puddings, 1xPeronamin for silver button, 2 hour timer which gave a card reveal.
    I will see about testing this donation a few times and see what the timers come out to be. Or if someone can help me with that since I don't have any of either item left right now.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde View Post
    The main reason I don't like the candy is just tacked onto the reward theory is that we just don't know how this works, so we can't really say that's how it happens.
    The algorithm could have so many different ways it was implemented that we just can't know that.
    For example:

    1. A basic table of pairs (PointGain, ConsumedItem)
    2. A basic table of pairs (MinPoints, RewardGrade)
    3. Another table of tuples (RewardGrade, DelayTimeInSeconds, {ListOfValidRewards}, MinRewardPoints, MaxRewardPoints)
    4. A basic table of pairs (PointCost, RewardItem)

    Then Kurito-chan:
    1. Calculates your donation based on the first table
    2. Fetches the reward grade based on the donation points
    3. Checks if she might alter the grade with RNG (Say, roll 16+ in a 1d20)
    4. If grade alteration is go, adds an extra to the grade (-50%,+50%) based on pure RNG (For all programmers out there: (grade * (rngCalc() - 0.5)))
    5. Fetches the delay time and list of valid rewards based on the final grade
    6. Build the reward:
      1. Randomly add an item, from the list of valid rewards, to the reward-
      2. Check if the reward point value (points fetched from the 4th table) is above the minimum needed.
        • If reward points are lacking, repeat from the first step. Only do this once.
      3. Apply magic formulae to the difference between MaxRewardPoints and CurrentRewardPoints to calculate how many candes to add.
    7. Register the reward, and return the delay time.



    Of course, that's a ridiculous amount of work for such a functionality.
    First of all, it's most probable that whatever we donate will only be used for calculating the reward grade, which will yield the delay time only.
    Then, once the time period is over, and we click on the RECIEVE button, only then the server will build a reward based on the grade/delay time.
    That would mean that, if a hypothetical grade of 6 were to be between 2k and 5k donation points, we'd get the same possible rewards no matter if we gave 2001pts in donations, or 4999pts.

    Also, based on optimized algorithms for this kind of thing, the most probable way this works is:

    [LIST=1][*]Calucale the reward grade in only one line of code (and two nested SQL queries):
    Code:
    fetchRewardGradeFromDataServer(ListOfDonationItems){
    
    Connection = ConnectToDataServer; QUeryResult = Connection.ExecuteSQLQueryforRewardGrade(ListOfDonationItems, RNG.getRngFactor); Numeric grade = QueryResult.getRewardGrade; Numeric delay = QueryResult.getDelayTime;
    }
    While the SQL code would look something like:
    Code:
    SELECT reward_grade, delay_time
    FROM reward_grade_table,
    
    (SELECT SUM(item_value) donation_value FROM LOOP list_of_donation_items
    (SELECT item_value FROM donation_items_table WHERE item_name = donation_item_name)
    )
    WHERE grade_min_value <= (donation_value + rng_factor) AND grade_max_value >= (donation_value + rng_factor)
    After that, once the time is over and we click on the recieve button,
    we'd send the reward grade to the server, and it would:
    1. Get a random number from RNG
    2. Ask the Data Server for the rewards for a certain grade and a certain random index
    3. Return the rewards to us

    Once again, such a thing could be done with a simple piece of code and an even simpler SQL query to a table of tuples (reward_grade, random_offset, list_of_reward_items).



    No, I'm not even saying that's how it works. I'm just showing that there are many possibilities we can cook up in our brains, and none of them might even be close to the real thing. As such, we can bandy around theories for how it works internally, but the facts we must present are the tabulated data we gather, and any statistical conclusion we can reach from those alone.

    Anything else is just deriving some fun from trying to understand how it might work.
    This is just like my work on the flash code to check if chance time and gacha rewards were calculated pre-choice or post-choice.
    Candy is like a trash reward, you put only candy and you got pink items or more candy. Drops just confirmed it, nothing beyond that.

    However, is possible to farm candy dropping 1-2 and rolling, because the min amount of candy dropped by nest is 5 (i did it 5 times and i noticed that).

    And about upgraded nests, is like gacha when you got a r card after picking a lvl 100 n card, a rare chance (i got only one after 95-100 picks with that feature, ignoring failed picks).

  10. #10
    Still debating between making a new thread for data or just sticking to this one...frankly I'm already at the edge of ragequit cliff about this because my paranoia's kicking in really hard.

    Some of the prizes I'm seeing on the chart don't seem to line up with the patterns their respective tiers usually award. I could only go about starting to question it publicly after hitting that tier (monitoring the wait time especially) at least 50 times but part of me wants to consider the possibility that some of the past data may have failed to confirm the wait time and that the prizes received actually come from a different wait time and are being misreported (to begin with, the theory that prize chance is completely dependent on wait time is debatable in itself but without that, we have no theory to work with at all)

    Anyways, setting aside the being subject to criticism, here are a few things to add to the data. Relevant new stuff is Bold/Underline/Blue:

    (This is how I plan to present my data, I would like if others presented it in a similar fashion but I'm not gonna go crazy about it)
    -Tribute: 2x Pero Pudding Half
    --Est Value: 260 (Calculated value based on table 1)
    --Est Tier: 00:30 (Expected wait time based on table 3)
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:30 (Actual wait time generated, variation suggests either an exception or conflicting data entry)
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze (Nut type that Kurito picks/grabs)
    ---Candy: 10 (For me candy has always been displayed first if included at all. I want to test a theory that it is separate from the prize)
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 1 (Prize 1 indicates the first item to show up (after candy if applicable)
    (When recorded into the data, there is also ---Prize 2 for any item that is displayed immediately after Prize 1. I want to test a hunch that there may be an order to the prizes given and a reason behind that order)

    [Conducted 2x]
    -Tribute: Peronamin Half
    --Est Value: 130
    --Est Tier: 00:20
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:20
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze
    ---Candy: 5
    ---Prize 1: R Wild, Elixir

    [Conducted 3x]
    -Tribute: 3x Peronamin Half
    --Est Value: 390
    --Est Tier: 00:40
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:40
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze
    ---Candy: 15
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 1, Peronamin Half


    I plan to Brute Force test the 3:00 wait time tier for the next week and maybe close the point gap from 2.6k-2.83k.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gap Close Experiment: 2600-2830
    Trial 1:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 5x N Wild Card, 5x N Gacha Ticket, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses

    Trial 2:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 10x N Wild Card, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: none
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses

    Trial 3:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 10x N Wild Card, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5
    ---Prize 2: Pero Pudding

    Subtrial: (scratching an itch)
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00

    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses
    (Um...are we absolutely certain that 2.6k points generates a 1:30 wait time? Either I got lucky or the 1:30 ceiling might actually be lower.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Subtrial 2:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier: 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 1:30
    ---Nut Type: Long Silver
    ---Candy: 20
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5

    Subtrial 3:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier: 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 1:30
    ---Nut Type: Long Silver
    ---Candy: none
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5
    ---Prize 2: Peronamin
    (Okay, nvm, guess 2600 is (or is under) the 1:30 ceiling)

    Will continue 2650 trials soon.
    Last edited by ChibiKika; 07-22-2015 at 05:24 PM.

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