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Thread: Kurito's Nest

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  1. #181

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    Believe me, I'm just as impatient as you imply you are.
    But that doe not make your putting personal unproved theories in the wiki a wrong thing to do.

    Wikis have blogs and discussion threads for people to post these theories, and then argue about them.
    Be warned that the moment you put up a personal theory in the wiki I'll have it taken down (personally if necesary). While your intentions are good, doing this will be worse for players searching for data.
    Your assumption that having wrong data is better than not having any data is completely wrong.

    Add all the tabulated data to the wiki, as that is proven objective data.
    Then add an entrance to your user's blog where you explain your theories, and link to said data.

    In the Kurito's Nest page enter some objective and clinical text that explains that there's no proven method to find out the possible rewards, but there's tabulated data that has been built from users' contributions, and then show the tabulated data (The table with the set of "times", "prizes", and "possible costs".
    Then explain that the cost value of each item is based on the JP tabulated data, and might not reflect Nutaku's version.

    All those are known facts.
    Add the part about there being sometimes some drift from the expected times, but there isn't any user consencus on how that works. Then add that until now, all tabulated data has shown that drift to not stray outside the margins you explained in your earlier post.

    See? That's just stating pure facts, all objective data, without the need to add any personal theory.
    The wiki isn't there to answer all your questions about the universe, but to gather all the player acquired data, and proven facts, for you to read easily, instead of having to reinvent the wheel yourself.
    PPS ID: 853603 (YoshiEnVerde)
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  2. #182
    Unfortunately all the data is scrambled all over this thread, making it hard to find. I'll have to organize/categorize it later...and probably best if I weren't doing that alone as you can already tell how biased I might be in my ideas.

    *Head Crack* Okay, scrap plausibility, add/update factual data, insert a place to discuss theory (wait, how do I do THAT?), and constantly point out that the real answers we want to know are out of our reach...okay, I'll get to work.

  3. #183
    Quote Originally Posted by ChibiKika View Post
    Unfortunately all the data is scrambled all over this thread, making it hard to find. I'll have to organize/categorize it later...and probably best if I weren't doing that alone as you can already tell how biased I might be in my ideas.

    What is it you find to be missing from the OP? I get the the poster has not quite got the table 100% up to date, but I hardly find this to be detrimental data to be missing. All it is are potential rewards for certain wait times. We already know all of the potentially available items, so the only questions are what quantities they could be obtained in for any single donation. The rest of the discussion is really just trying to find out minimum and optimal donations. And I think we have already decided that heavy donations are hardly worth the reward, and also that donating a single R gacha ticket is much more valuable than using the ticket to draw with.

    If you point out what posts you think should be included in the OP, then I can add them. Or, possibly even better, I can grant you (or anyone else) permission to take over this thread as if it were your own.

  4. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by Kotono View Post
    What is it you find to be missing from the OP? I get the the poster has not quite got the table 100% up to date, but I hardly find this to be detrimental data to be missing. All it is are potential rewards for certain wait times. We already know all of the potentially available items, so the only questions are what quantities they could be obtained in for any single donation. The rest of the discussion is really just trying to find out minimum and optimal donations. And I think we have already decided that heavy donations are hardly worth the reward, and also that donating a single R gacha ticket is much more valuable than using the ticket to draw with.

    If you point out what posts you think should be included in the OP, then I can add them. Or, possibly even better, I can grant you (or anyone else) permission to take over this thread as if it were your own.
    *Headdesk* I didn't mean it like that...and as it is I'm trying to avoid setting off a virtual aneurysm in my mind.

    You're right, in terms of basic information that the average player may need, the table more or less has it covered. I'm just lightly bugged that beyond 3 hours wait time is a virtual no man's land in terms of data. I'll brute force that for results when I get the time but while that part of the chart has so much blank, it leaves a sort of...itch...like a painless itch in your eardrum that you just can't reach without popping a vein in your ear...

    Admittedly it doesn't help that although I like to think I might be onto something that may reflect the actual programming of the game (on an amateur level I've written source code for basic games so I've seen a few program-based patterns in my experience), I'm being told that because I do not and never will have 100% undeniable evidence to show to the world, I can't put it on my findings that I really want to be out there as a suggestion (and yeah, I know, just put it in a discussion instead of the actual wiki page, problem is I'm still trying to find exactly where that "discussion" option is on the wiki site) Like I said, I'm not blaming anyone...it's just...irritating.

    Once again, chart's got quite a few holes, holes like between 2600 points and 2,830 points, 3:30 wait time only having a single number instead of a range (I know, probably only one data plot that ever got recorded, we're missing alot), or Limited N not showing in the 2:00 prizes despite it showing in the tier above and below (and that's usually a hole I'd fill on instinct because programs generally don't leave holes open like that unless blatantly ordered to do so and most of the time they don't but we're not allowed to consider absolute truth a "most of the time" statement)

    And from time to time I see people put up the own personal blog guides that, sure, have imperfections and misconceptions, generally an 80-95% accuracy but all that happens is someone points out a mistake and it gets corrected and it just gets closer to accurate and people generally appreciate that over a 100% correct but less than 40% helpful.

    ...I'm drifting so I'll shorten the note:

    Nothing's wrong about the poster, there's just a few things missing from there I'd like to be able to fill in with programmer instinct instead of actual data and devote myself to proving later down the road. That's not going to be allowed though so forget it.

    I am not ditching the table on wikia that's based on the OP here though. Alot of the edited data there was based on my last few days of experiments with Kurito that I never got the time to record here.

  5. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by ChibiKika View Post
    and yeah, I know, just put it in a discussion instead of the actual wiki page, problem is I'm still trying to find exactly where that "discussion" option is on the wiki site
    Not to try and ignore everything else you mention, but I do feel the need to point this out.

    Yoshi has already said this, and I have said it before somewhere as well. A wiki is not a place for discussions like this. A wiki is the place where you store factual information in a condensed and easy to read format for the benefit of new and/or older players that might need a quick reference check. You are already at the correct place to hold these in depth discussions. That is what forums are best used for. I think you should just store any proven information on the wiki page, and then at the bottom, place a link to threads where extended discussion and theorycrafting happen. Threads where we can attempt to prove or disprove theories. And if proven, can be added to the wiki.

    The worst thing we can do is post incorrect information in a place where anyone unfamiliar with the game would mistake it as absolute truth. It's better that we leave blanks in place of theories.

    As far as the table's empty wait time sections, I can go back to playing my alt account and see if I can get some of those times filled in. But I'm not going to use those resources on my main account for experimenting.

  6. #186
    I can confirm the "no more than 2 items + candy" theory, at least for silver and below..

    Last donation gave me Peronamin + SR Wild Card 5 + 20 candy.

  7. #187
    My theory is that players can get all reward with just 1 candy if they er Lucky enogth.
    So list of reward you get by donating fx 1 R-Gacha become useless unless it have properbilities imo.

    The way I think donating Work is that the more points of items you donate the longer waiting time will be garantied. Waiting time can if you are Lucky alwasy be longer but newer shorter that garanti.

    Example: If you donat 1 R-Gacha you get a minimum waiting time for 50 min, but if you Lucky you can ge waiting of 1:00, 1:30, 2:00, 2:30 and 3:00.
    Most likely also even longer waiting times but I have not been Lucky enogth to get them myself. Each waithing time have a basket with rewards and proberbilities of each reward.


    With 1* R-Gacha or 1* Pudding or 1* paronamin I got (waithing time normaly 50 mins):

    35 times I got: SR Wild3
    28 times I got: SR Wild3 + R Wild
    25 times I got: 20 candy + SR-wild 3
    10 times I got: 15 candy + SR wild1 + paronamin half
    8 times I got: pudding half
    8 times I got: R-Girl
    5 times I got: paronamin half
    3 times I got: SR Wild1
    2 times I got: 15 candy + R Girl
    2 times I got: N-Girl
    2 times I got: 20 candy + SR-wild 3 + pudding half
    1 times I got: R-Girl + N Girl

    I think this drops relates to waiting times longer tha 50 min:

    1 times I got: SR-Wild5 + pudding
    1 times I got: Peromin half + Peromin (2:00)
    1 times I got: 20 candy + R Gacha
    1 times I got: 20 candy + Sr-Wild 3 + perona half
    1 times I got: SR-Wild5 + Perom
    1 times I got: 20 candy + SR-Wild5 + Perom

    Total 135 drops of which 6?? is from longer waiting times.

    It is posible to get both 15 and 20 candy with 50 min waiting time.
    SR-Wild 3 dont come with 15 candy.
    Drops that dont give a SR-Wild3 dont give 20 candy.
    If you get a R-Wild you alwasy get a SR-Wild3 too.

    SR-wild 5 relates to 1:30 waiting times I think.

  8. #188

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    Quote Originally Posted by chillinfar View Post
    I can confirm the "no more than 2 items + candy" theory, at least for silver and below..

    Last donation gave me Peronamin + SR Wild Card 5 + 20 candy.
    The main reason I don't like the candy is just tacked onto the reward theory is that we just don't know how this works, so we can't really say that's how it happens.
    The algorithm could have so many different ways it was implemented that we just can't know that.
    For example:

    1. A basic table of pairs (PointGain, ConsumedItem)
    2. A basic table of pairs (MinPoints, RewardGrade)
    3. Another table of tuples (RewardGrade, DelayTimeInSeconds, {ListOfValidRewards}, MinRewardPoints, MaxRewardPoints)
    4. A basic table of pairs (PointCost, RewardItem)

    Then Kurito-chan:
    1. Calculates your donation based on the first table
    2. Fetches the reward grade based on the donation points
    3. Checks if she might alter the grade with RNG (Say, roll 16+ in a 1d20)
    4. If grade alteration is go, adds an extra to the grade (-50%,+50%) based on pure RNG (For all programmers out there: (grade * (rngCalc() - 0.5)))
    5. Fetches the delay time and list of valid rewards based on the final grade
    6. Build the reward:
      1. Randomly add an item, from the list of valid rewards, to the reward-
      2. Check if the reward point value (points fetched from the 4th table) is above the minimum needed.
        • If reward points are lacking, repeat from the first step. Only do this once.
      3. Apply magic formulae to the difference between MaxRewardPoints and CurrentRewardPoints to calculate how many candes to add.
    7. Register the reward, and return the delay time.



    Of course, that's a ridiculous amount of work for such a functionality.
    First of all, it's most probable that whatever we donate will only be used for calculating the reward grade, which will yield the delay time only.
    Then, once the time period is over, and we click on the RECIEVE button, only then the server will build a reward based on the grade/delay time.
    That would mean that, if a hypothetical grade of 6 were to be between 2k and 5k donation points, we'd get the same possible rewards no matter if we gave 2001pts in donations, or 4999pts.

    Also, based on optimized algorithms for this kind of thing, the most probable way this works is:

    [LIST=1][*]Calucale the reward grade in only one line of code (and two nested SQL queries):
    Code:
    fetchRewardGradeFromDataServer(ListOfDonationItems){
    
    Connection = ConnectToDataServer; QUeryResult = Connection.ExecuteSQLQueryforRewardGrade(ListOfDonationItems, RNG.getRngFactor); Numeric grade = QueryResult.getRewardGrade; Numeric delay = QueryResult.getDelayTime;
    }
    While the SQL code would look something like:
    Code:
    SELECT reward_grade, delay_time
    FROM reward_grade_table,
    
    (SELECT SUM(item_value) donation_value FROM LOOP list_of_donation_items
    (SELECT item_value FROM donation_items_table WHERE item_name = donation_item_name)
    )
    WHERE grade_min_value <= (donation_value + rng_factor) AND grade_max_value >= (donation_value + rng_factor)
    After that, once the time is over and we click on the recieve button,
    we'd send the reward grade to the server, and it would:
    1. Get a random number from RNG
    2. Ask the Data Server for the rewards for a certain grade and a certain random index
    3. Return the rewards to us

    Once again, such a thing could be done with a simple piece of code and an even simpler SQL query to a table of tuples (reward_grade, random_offset, list_of_reward_items).



    No, I'm not even saying that's how it works. I'm just showing that there are many possibilities we can cook up in our brains, and none of them might even be close to the real thing. As such, we can bandy around theories for how it works internally, but the facts we must present are the tabulated data we gather, and any statistical conclusion we can reach from those alone.

    Anything else is just deriving some fun from trying to understand how it might work.
    This is just like my work on the flash code to check if chance time and gacha rewards were calculated pre-choice or post-choice.
    PPS ID: 853603 (YoshiEnVerde)
    Osawari Invite: 40VRKO15D3C537UUC2F4F

  9. #189
    Put in 1 R-Gacha ticket, got a 1:30 wait time.

    Edit: Received the Limited R card.
    Last edited by Skulkraken; 07-22-2015 at 11:31 PM.

  10. #190
    Yeah, I'm just gonna...go make that other thread.

    There are...so many things regarding the "lack of understanding" notes that are being put up here that I want to mouth off about but seeing as I don't have my own documented data to try to push towards a point, I can recognize that most of my arguments here are pretty weak.

    And yeah, I'll just go out and say it, that after careful thought, I think the reports of the data we've collected may have been missing a bit of detail that I would have otherwise wanted to use towards a few of my observations-turned-theories. They're still accurate, just missing the extra "umph" to allows space for conjectures.

    You still want to disagree, fine. I still want to pursue that idea (not on the wiki, of course) until I'm convinced it's untrue. And maybe if I can show the pattern a bit more clearly it'll seem at least more convincing than me loading everything into an idea shotgun and firing it at random for everyone to bash on.

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