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Thread: Kurito's Nest

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  1. #11
    Still debating between making a new thread for data or just sticking to this one...frankly I'm already at the edge of ragequit cliff about this because my paranoia's kicking in really hard.

    Some of the prizes I'm seeing on the chart don't seem to line up with the patterns their respective tiers usually award. I could only go about starting to question it publicly after hitting that tier (monitoring the wait time especially) at least 50 times but part of me wants to consider the possibility that some of the past data may have failed to confirm the wait time and that the prizes received actually come from a different wait time and are being misreported (to begin with, the theory that prize chance is completely dependent on wait time is debatable in itself but without that, we have no theory to work with at all)

    Anyways, setting aside the being subject to criticism, here are a few things to add to the data. Relevant new stuff is Bold/Underline/Blue:

    (This is how I plan to present my data, I would like if others presented it in a similar fashion but I'm not gonna go crazy about it)
    -Tribute: 2x Pero Pudding Half
    --Est Value: 260 (Calculated value based on table 1)
    --Est Tier: 00:30 (Expected wait time based on table 3)
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:30 (Actual wait time generated, variation suggests either an exception or conflicting data entry)
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze (Nut type that Kurito picks/grabs)
    ---Candy: 10 (For me candy has always been displayed first if included at all. I want to test a theory that it is separate from the prize)
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 1 (Prize 1 indicates the first item to show up (after candy if applicable)
    (When recorded into the data, there is also ---Prize 2 for any item that is displayed immediately after Prize 1. I want to test a hunch that there may be an order to the prizes given and a reason behind that order)

    [Conducted 2x]
    -Tribute: Peronamin Half
    --Est Value: 130
    --Est Tier: 00:20
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:20
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze
    ---Candy: 5
    ---Prize 1: R Wild, Elixir

    [Conducted 3x]
    -Tribute: 3x Peronamin Half
    --Est Value: 390
    --Est Tier: 00:40
    ---Resulting Tier: 00:40
    ---Nut Type: Fat Bronze
    ---Candy: 15
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 1, Peronamin Half


    I plan to Brute Force test the 3:00 wait time tier for the next week and maybe close the point gap from 2.6k-2.83k.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Gap Close Experiment: 2600-2830
    Trial 1:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 5x N Wild Card, 5x N Gacha Ticket, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses

    Trial 2:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 10x N Wild Card, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: none
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses

    Trial 3:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding, 10x N Wild Card, 5x Candy
    --Est Value: 2650
    --Est Tier: ? (1:30-2:00)
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00
    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5
    ---Prize 2: Pero Pudding

    Subtrial: (scratching an itch)
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 2:00

    ---Nut Type: Fat Silver
    ---Candy: 30
    ---Prize 1: 2x PeroPero Glasses
    (Um...are we absolutely certain that 2.6k points generates a 1:30 wait time? Either I got lucky or the 1:30 ceiling might actually be lower.)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Subtrial 2:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier: 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 1:30
    ---Nut Type: Long Silver
    ---Candy: 20
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5

    Subtrial 3:
    -Tribute: 4x Pero Pudding
    --Est Value: 2600
    --Est Tier: 1:30
    ---Resulting Tier: 1:30
    ---Nut Type: Long Silver
    ---Candy: none
    ---Prize 1: SR Wild 5
    ---Prize 2: Peronamin
    (Okay, nvm, guess 2600 is (or is under) the 1:30 ceiling)

    Will continue 2650 trials soon.
    Last edited by ChibiKika; 07-22-2015 at 04:24 PM.

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