Originally Posted by Xanthius

Has anyone else noticed a correlation between the nut shape and getting a card? I've gotten Urumi Aiba 9 times and now Aoe and each time it was a card its been the short and wide variety rather than the long kind.

We have noticed that there is definite correlation between the color on top of the acorn, but no correlation pertaining to the shape of the acorn. Also, the higher the amount of time you have to wait for your prize, apparently, the better the reward.

I am going to check into it, so we can get a definite answer.

1 Ex Card + 4 R Gacha-> 1 Pero Glasses (how i can use it?) and 2 Pero Radar (the same question).

When i try to put back on nest, bronze button :bad:

Originally Posted by chillinfar

1 Ex Card + 4 R Gacha-> 1 Pero Glasses (how i can use it?) and 2 Pero Radar (the same question).

When i try to put back on nest, bronze button :bad:

Those 2 items are for another kind of event, which is supposed to be launched later.

We've been sorta tiptoeing around the analysis of this nest for a while so I think I'm gonna chuck a wrench, see if it changes anything.

2 big points I want to bring out and get feedback on. Why do I want feedback? Cuz I'm working on the damn wiki site and I don't want to be embarrassingly wrong.

First off: from the reference examples of others and my own personal experience with Kurito, this is my understanding of the main points of how Kurito's Nest works:



*Regarding Donations:
-You can donate up to 10 of any item, and up to 4 kinds of items, for a total of 40 consumables of 4 different types. (ie 10x R gachas & 10x Pero Puddings & 10x Event Gachas & 10x Card Reveals, can't add another and can't go above 10)
[Efficient Proof of Contradiction is a tribute/donation involving 5 different kinds of items or 11+ of a certain item donated]

-All items have an inherent point value that determines wait time (and by that default, prize). Our knowledge of point value is based on JP wiki and may be inaccurate.

-When donating, confirm button turns from bronze to silver past 1500 pts, to gold past 10k pts, to rainbow past 20k pts. This doesn't determine prize, it just serves as a reference (I say this because 1 Pero Pudding = 650 pts = Bronze Confirm button = Silver Long Nut.



*Regarding Wait Times:
-Wait time usually depends on the point value of the total donation to Kurito

-Wait time may fluctuate above or below its original expected time at random

-Fluctuation of wait time is possibly due to random drop/raise of values down to 1/2 the donation value and up to 2x the donation value (I say this because I have never seen the wait time drop below what 1/2 the donation value would result in, nor have I seen it raise above what 2x the donation value would result in)

-Fluctuation is NOT FIXED, meaning it does not only cut in half or double, but may vary in between. (I say this because 00:50 wait time tributes go up to 1:30 when doubled in value but sometimes result in 1:00 instead, which would be impossible unless it varied)
[Effective Proof of Contradiction would be a wait time that more than doubles its tribute value or more than halves it]
^Above in blue is unproven, I'll put it in the wiki as a suggested plausibility.



*Regarding Prizes: (This is the part I need the most help with)
-Prizes are dependent on wait time
--Wait Time determines prize nut color/shape
[Effective Proof of Contradiction is a different nut color/shape from the same Wait Time]

-ALL Consumable prizes have chance of including Candy
--Possible Candy given is dependent on wait time.
[Effective Proof of Contradiction is a Candy amount that does not line up with its known respective wait time:
*Wait time of 0:05, 0:10, and 0:20 returning more/less than 5 candy (excluding 0)
*Wait time of 0:30 returning more/less than 10 candy (excluding 0)
*Wait time of 0:40 returning more/less than 15 candy (excluding 0)
*Wait time of 0:50, 1:00, and 1:30 returning more/less than 20 candy (excluding 0)
anything beyond that is a bunch of incomplete data]

-Excluding Candy, you ONLY get up to (Missed this earlier, sorry) 2 items in a prize
[Effective Proof of Contradiction is a return that gives more than 2 consumables (excluding candy)]
--Items in the prize are unique to their slots for that prize tier (meaning if you get SR Wild 3 first then R Wild second, you'll never get R wild first or SR Wild 3 second.)
[Effective Proof of Contradiction is a return that has its item order reversed (referencing above, you first see the R Wild (after the candy), and then the SR Wild 3)]
--You NEVER get the 2nd prize alone (meaning if you get SR Wild 3 first then R Wild, you'll never get R Wild alone)
[Effective Proof of Contradiction is a return that contains only the item that is usually included secondary to another item]

-If you can get 1 Lim Girl Card, you can get 'em all (If you find any Lim Girl Card in a certain wait time, you can find ALL Lim Girl Cards in that wait time. That being said, there may be a cut-off point in wait time that you need to get above before you are eligible to get Lim Girl Cards)
[This theory cannot be disproved but is not factual unless data records all Lim Cards of all rarities being collected at all wait time tiers reported]
^Above in blue is unproven, I'll put it in the wiki as a suggested plausibility.


So these are my theories. If you have an objection and/or a piece of data that suggests an inaccuracy, please bring it up and I'll make sure to yank my theory from the model. If you have an idea not shown here that seems to be backed by all the data collected thus far, bring it up too and I'll be happy to add it to the model as well.

Second:

This thread's too jumbled. I want to make a new one solely for holding data towards Kurito's Nest entries. We started off not knowing too much about it but now that some of the program logic makes sense, I think we can draw better, more descriptive data for anyone willing to participate. If no one objects to it in 24 hours, I'll build the thread and start asking for input.

Originally Posted by ChibiKika

We've been sorta tiptoeing around the analysis of this nest for a while so I think I'm gonna chuck a wrench, see if it changes anything.

2 big points I want to bring out and get feedback on. Why do I want feedback? Cuz I'm working on the damn wiki site and I don't want to be embarrassingly wrong.

First off: from the reference examples of others and my own personal experience with Kurito, this is my understanding of the main points of how Kurito's Nest works:

[...]

So these are my theories. Anyone who has proof of objection, please do so and fast. Anyone who has an alternate theory, please propose it and fast.

Second:

This thread's too jumbled. I want to make a new one solely for holding data towards Kurito's Nest entries. We started off not knowing too much about it but now that some of the program logic makes sense, I think we can draw better, more descriptive data for anyone willing to participate. If no one objects to it in 24 hours, I'll build the thread and start asking for input.

While I don't have any proof of non-validity for your theories, I must remind you that just because none of us has any such proof right now doesn't mean you have the right to just add your theories into the wiki.
A wiki, as a user-driven source for semi-reliable information, must never accept any data that has no valid source to confirm it. It's one of the main tenets of a good wiki.
Of course, we have a lot of guessing here; and, unless Nutaku makes the algorithms public (which they obviously won't), we'll never have definite provable answers.
However, these statistic experiments do serve to give a general sounding board for ideas on how things work.

Unless you have a better reasoning than I just think this might be the way it works, and look, some of the data validates this, your theories are just that: theories. And, as such, should not be added to any information source (unless the source is about work in progress non-validated theories).


If this comes off as a bit harsh, or conforntational, know that I write this because of your statement of:

Originally Posted by ChibiKika

[...]Anyone who has an alternate theory, please propose it and fast[...]

As it sounds as if you pretend to add your theories to the wiki if you aren't given proof against them.

If you didn't mean that, then I apologise for the confrontational manner of this post; but I will stand by the things I wrote here.

- - - Updated - - -

Originally Posted by ChibiKika

We've been sorta tiptoeing around the analysis of this nest for a while so I think I'm gonna chuck a wrench, see if it changes anything.
This thread's too jumbled. I want to make a new one solely for holding data towards Kurito's Nest entries. We started off not knowing too much about it but now that some of the program logic makes sense, I think we can draw better, more descriptive data for anyone willing to participate. If no one objects to it in 24 hours, I'll build the thread and start asking for input.

BTW, on that second point, I agree with you completely. We should have sepparate threads for gathering Kurito data (and tabulating it), and for any theory-crafting on how Kurito's Nest works.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, regarding some of your theories:
You can't get only two items. You can get 1 too.
And you should not be sepparating candies from the other prizes, as if they are some extra tacked in the end, and not part of the prize itself.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and my alt account just got Urumi Aiba (R card) and 15 candies in the same reward, so that invalidates another of your points

[MENTION=92]YoshiEnVerde[/MENTION]

I'll be frank, I sound rushed because I'm impatient by nature and wary of the time passed and the lack of update to the wiki (and lack of update to the chart on this thread itself for that matter). Admittedly a wiki that has partial or inaccurate information can throw off its readers but I prefer that over one that is outright missing information that forces readers to try to make conclusions of their own (as I am currently doing with more success because of your criticism, thank you very much, I am not being sarcastic, it seriously does help).

So yes, I am willing to step on a few dozen landmines for the sake of feedback and results, maybe pass myself off as arrogant so that we can move forward in some way.

The way we draw our conclusions and understandings is from calculating the data and observing possible patterns and stating them as theories, knowing full well that without the publicly revealed algorithms (which you likewise stated wouldn't be made available to us), we will never be able to establish said theories as fact. Said theories are simply shot down when a piece of data comes in that conflicts with it, to which then it's just removed, simple as that.

My point is, I WANT criticism and conflicting data because they help take down any hypothesis I made that was premature while keeping ones that may either be true or close enough to the truth to count for something. Making something off of those still beats the questionable page I walked into in the wiki. If you disagree on that note and think the original was alot better, then let me know and I'll go ahead and reverse EVERYTHING I've done on that page so far.

And yes, I do intend to write up my theories on the wiki with the understanding that at any given time if they are proven untrue, they are subject to modification or removal to be replaced by something closer to the fact if not factual itself. At least from all the wiki sites I've been on, that's how it usually happens.

I'm still gonna propose my ideas. If conflicting data shows up within my view (and I observe alot), I'll go and remove it myself, either replace it with a new theory or leave it an unknown (or if you'd prefer I'll turn all my ideas into "suggested possibilities" and keep it like that for eternity because they'll never evolve beyond that.

And for the sake of this, confrontational is good, it's constructive so long as it's backed by reason, and by reason it has been backed so I'm satisfied.

Now, regarding the theory rejections:

Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde

You can't get only two items. You can get 1 too.

I meant to say that you can only get "as many as" 2 items, as in it doesn't extend to 3 or more items (4 if you include the damned candy) in a single Kurito return. Yes, you can also get 1, I've noticed that.

In all the data I've looked over, I have yet to see one Kurito return that involved more than 2 consumable items (excluding candy, yes I am excluding candy, I will explain later)

Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde

And you should not be sepparating candies from the other prizes, as if they are some extra tacked in the end, and not part of the prize itself.

I am separating them because from what I've seen in the data so far they don't directly correlate with the prize, only with the wait time (in fact, the candy amounts don't even match up with the nut color/shape, just disproved that myself a few hours ago so I'm yanking that theory). All of (okay, maybe not all but every single one I've seen and recorded) the Kurito returns I've seen for certain tiers involves combinations of items that sometimes have the candy, sometimes do not, and during these times have no other form of alteration to the returns content. While the idea itself isn't going to be fact (because nothing I propose as a theory can be one, I know), I find it to be plausible most of the time...and in fact I'm even proposing likely parameters of data that would reject the theory.

In the candy case, the only rejection I can think of is a Kurito return that has only candy and nothing else. That would suggest that candy can't be just an addition because otherwise there is no intended prize at all. Probably a bunch of other ways to disprove it, I'm open to suggestions and plausible rejections on that front, seriously.

Originally Posted by YoshiEnVerde

Oh, and my alt account just got Urumi Aiba (R card) and 15 candies in the same reward, so that invalidates another of your points

Noted and accepted, I will yank that theory, even yank the one that says candy correlates with wait time if your kurito return didn't come from the 00:40 wait time (maybe, maybe not, there is still that possibility that limited cards are considered a tier of their own in relation to candy and...alright, I'll yank it if it wasn't 40 minutes).

Truthfully, I only proposed that idea because so far all of my Kurito returns involving limited girl cards didn't have candies attached. Finding Limited Cards in the first place is fairly uncommon so the lack of data made that theory pretty unstable. Nonetheless, good to know that I can scrap that one.

I'll say it again, I'm doing this for the sake of building a model that's at least 85% (random number, I just mean usually passable) accurate about your typical visit to kurito's nest. I'm not looking for perfect, we can't do perfect without Nutaku's cooperation. So the best alternative is more data, conflicting data especially, just more things that close the gaps and remove as many incorrect ideas as possible. I'm open to that, just don't want to see something were we get like no data and no effort to work on anything.

So someone other than me, please start/keep rejecting my ideas and even better, join in on the brainstorming. At least we're getting somewhere.

Believe me, I'm just as impatient as you imply you are.
But that doe not make your putting personal unproved theories in the wiki a wrong thing to do.

Wikis have blogs and discussion threads for people to post these theories, and then argue about them.
Be warned that the moment you put up a personal theory in the wiki I'll have it taken down (personally if necesary). While your intentions are good, doing this will be worse for players searching for data.
Your assumption that having wrong data is better than not having any data is completely wrong.

Add all the tabulated data to the wiki, as that is proven objective data.
Then add an entrance to your user's blog where you explain your theories, and link to said data.

In the Kurito's Nest page enter some objective and clinical text that explains that there's no proven method to find out the possible rewards, but there's tabulated data that has been built from users' contributions, and then show the tabulated data (The table with the set of "times", "prizes", and "possible costs".
Then explain that the cost value of each item is based on the JP tabulated data, and might not reflect Nutaku's version.

All those are known facts.
Add the part about there being sometimes some drift from the expected times, but there isn't any user consencus on how that works. Then add that until now, all tabulated data has shown that drift to not stray outside the margins you explained in your earlier post.

See? That's just stating pure facts, all objective data, without the need to add any personal theory.
The wiki isn't there to answer all your questions about the universe, but to gather all the player acquired data, and proven facts, for you to read easily, instead of having to reinvent the wheel yourself.